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As President Donald Trump races to push his “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” through Congress by July 4, tensions are mounting not just with Democrats, but within the Republican Party itself.
The bill, a sweeping mix of tax cuts and spending reforms, has drawn fire from deficit hawks, moderates concerned about safety net reductions, and even billionaire Elon Musk—Trump’s former ally and top 2024 Republican donor—who now calls the bill a “disgusting abomination.”
Despite the internal strife, Trump and congressional leaders remain determined to deliver on his campaign promise of bold tax reform, even if it means brushing aside warnings from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and other fiscal watchdogs.
Fiscal Discipline Takes a Backseat
For decades, Republicans campaigned on promises of balanced budgets and reduced deficits. But with Trump back in the White House and narrow GOP control of both chambers, fiscal restraint is taking a backseat to political momentum.
The White House has dismissed CBO estimates as “politically biased,” pointing to years of alleged favoritism toward Democrat agendas.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo defended the bill last week, stating, “All the talk about how this bill is going to generate an increase in our deficit is absolutely wrong.” He and other Republican leaders argue that the bill will spur economic growth and ultimately generate tax revenue to offset its costs.
But fiscal conservatives aren’t so sure. According to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the legislation could add up to $5 trillion to the national debt over the next decade—more than doubling the debt from where it stood when Trump first took office in 2017.
Elon Musk Turns on Trump
Perhaps the most shocking defection came from Elon Musk. Once a staunch Trump supporter and the biggest donor to the GOP in the 2024 cycle, Musk blasted the bill for undermining his own Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
He accused the legislation of being a “massive spending bill” that betrays the core fiscal values many Americans expected from the Republican majority.
Musk’s criticism provided a boost to Republican fiscal hawks, who now find themselves caught between loyalty to the party and genuine concerns about long-term debt sustainability.
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GOP Senators Seek Major Revisions
With a slim 53-47 Senate majority, Republicans can only afford three defections—and a handful of senators are already voicing serious reservations.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune is now spearheading a quiet campaign to break out controversial portions of the bill for separate discussion, particularly nearly $800 billion in Medicaid cuts and $267 billion in SNAP reductions.
Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) are pushing back against provisions that could leave millions without healthcare. The latest CBO estimate suggests over 10 million Americans could lose coverage, a figure that’s made even moderate Republicans uneasy.
Even staunch Trump ally Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) admitted that some of the spending cuts conservatives want “might need to wait for future bills,” signaling a possible retreat on immediate austerity measures.
Debt Spiral Warnings Mount
Critics of the bill argue that it not only risks short-term deficits but could plunge the nation into a long-term debt spiral. Maurice Obstfeld, former IMF chief economist, warned that rising global interest rates could “greatly increase the cost of having a high debt” and hasten a fiscal crisis.
And while Republicans cite the unexpected revenue gains post-2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) as proof their policies pay for themselves, analysts say those gains were largely driven by COVID-era inflation, not the tax cuts themselves.
The Tax Foundation—often favorable to conservative policies—concluded that while the new bill may offer a modest boost to the economy, “it does not pay for itself.”
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Public Concern Rising, but Focused on Inflation
Polls show widespread concern about the national debt: 72% of Republicans and 86% of Democrats are worried about rising deficits. But voters are more immediately focused on inflation and the affordability of basic needs like healthcare and housing.
And ironically, the debt-fueled spending in Trump’s bill may only worsen those concerns, as larger deficits can drive up interest rates, pushing up mortgage, auto loan, and credit card costs for everyday Americans.
Trump Bets Big on Economic Growth—Will It Pay Off?
Trump is betting that his massive tax and spending overhaul will supercharge the economy enough to outweigh debt concerns—and he may be right in the short term. But the political cost could be high. With moderates balking, fiscal conservatives sounding alarms, and Elon Musk turning up the heat, passing the bill will require sharp strategy and intense deal-making in the Senate.
As July 4 approaches, Republicans must decide: stay the course with Trump and risk a ballooning debt—or demand a leaner, more fiscally responsible package that may cost political capital but protect long-term stability.
One thing is clear: in the new GOP, the war between populism and prudence is far from over.
